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Bonds Pouting After Higher PCE
To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notably 0.246%, so it nearly rounded up to 0.3 vs 0.2), but headline inflation was a tenth of a point above the monthly and annual targets. Traders were apparently positioned for better news as the bond market's immediate response has been moderately quick sell-off. MBS are starting out down more than an eighth and 10yr yields are up more than 2bps from pre-data levels.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 26 Aug 2026 | 12:47 pm
Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes
Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes The day ended as it began: with bond yields and oil prices dropping in unison based on hopeful headlines surrounding the Iran war. Perhaps the market was in the mood for a rally because the headlines weren't particularly specific or compelling. Oil prices are closer to the middle of their range for the month of August whereas 10yr yields are closer to the low end of the range. This could suggest a bit of a willingness to rally on the part of the bond market, but sustaining the rally would require continued cooperation from oil as well as econ data. Econ Data / Events Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Jun) 2.1% vs 1.7% f'cast, 1.6% prev CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Jun) 0.4% vs -- f'cast, 0.9% prev FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Jun) 0.0% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.3% prev FHFA Home Prices y/y (Jun) 2.3% vs -- f'cast, 2.2% prev Market Movement Recap 09:32 AM MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 3.9bps at 4.659 01:40 PM MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 5.5bps at 4.642 03:49 PM MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 6.5bps at 4.632Source: Mortgage News Daily | 25 Aug 2026 | 8:33 pm
Mortgage Rates Follow Oil Prices Lower
Fuel prices continue dictating most of the day-to-day momentum for interest rates and today was a notable example. Early this morning, news reports suggested progress in the peace process via Pakistani mediators. Oil prices dropped sharply in response and bond yields followed the move. Bond yields correlate with mortgage rates. When yields are falling, mortgage lenders are generally able to offer lower rates than they otherwise would have, depending on the timing and size of the move. In today's case, it was good for a 0.04% drop in average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates--resulting in the lowest levels in nearly a week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]Source: Mortgage News Daily | 25 Aug 2026 | 7:41 pm
Webcasts, UAD 3.6, Compliance, Digital HELOC, MSR Valuation Tools; Rates Quiet
Zillow and Redfin settled their FTC antitrust case, as we figured they would, and certainly technology was involved. With the increase in artificial intelligence, many teachers have gone back to having all writing done in classes, handwritten, or with an electric typewriter. Would parents rather have their child learning something in class from the instructor, or taking that time to write an essay? Students lose much more than grammar skills when they use AI to write. In healthcare, critical legal questions are emerging: who is responsible when inaccurate advice causes harm? What is the potential liability? Do disclaimers protect AI companies? Why is proving causation difficult? Can existing injury laws possibly keep pace? For lenders, the question of implementing technology results in a “help” versus “replace” scenario. I have never heard an AI vendor talk about replacing employees, but instead leveraging the capabilities of the existing staff. No LO wants a client who knows more about AI than they do. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. Today’s has an interview with Deluxe’s Adria Liss on how the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (HPPA) is reshaping mortgage marketing around privacy, compliance, and smarter targeting, making data governance and adaptability key competitive advantages.)Source: Mortgage News Daily | 25 Aug 2026 | 3:52 pm
Oil Down, Yields Down
No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an overnight drop in oil prices coincided perfectly with a drop in Treasury yields. The end.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 25 Aug 2026 | 2:06 pm
Tune Out The Noise (Part 2)
Tune Out The Noise (Part 2) Last week, when Treasury announced higher per-operation limits for the buyback program, we advised tuning out the noise. Specifically, this meant that the announcement was not ever destined to be a material market mover or provide lasting relief for rates despite ample media coverage and the appearance of significance. It's more of the same to start the new week. Treasury sources threw out big numbers in reference to buyback operations by citing the Treasury General Account balance (basically, the government's checking account). Markets didn't care and neither should you. A big ramp in buybacks implies an equally big ramp in Treasury issuance. Buybacks can only influence the yield curve and not overall rate levels. Moreover, MBS run with the middle of the curve which might not see any benefit at all from excess buybacks in the 10-30yr space. Bonds rallied today due to lower fuel prices. The end. Market Movement Recap 08:59 AM Modestly stronger overnight. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.713 02:02 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.697 04:32 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.9bps at 4.703Source: Mortgage News Daily | 24 Aug 2026 | 8:56 pm
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Higher
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, but whereas bonds improved slightly from Friday's levels, mortgage rates are microscopically higher for the average lender. The issue is timing. Mortgage lenders set rates last Friday during a time of day when bonds were at their best levels. In other words, today's improvement is only an improvement relative to Friday's closing levels. If we were to compare just the time of day when lenders set mortgage rates, bonds are flat to slightly weaker.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 24 Aug 2026 | 7:59 pm
Borrower Analysis, 1st Lien HELOC, Ginnie eNote Products; Webcasts Approaching; NEXA/UMortgage Deal
“People make their wealth out of one investment. People keep their wealth by diversifying their investments.” Owning mortgage servicing rights has created wealth for many companies, and STRATMOR’s current blog is, “Those Monthly Payments Go Somewhere.” I am glad that all my 401(k) isn’t in Agency shares: Fannie Mae’s stock is down 42 percent this year, and Freddie’s is down 45 percent. Although there is a steady stream of informal communication, things have been somewhat quiet formally from the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency Bill Pulte and the FHFA in recent weeks. Recall that before he left his post at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, he made another round of personnel cuts. (Pulte was tapped to lead ODNI following the departure of DNI Tulsi Gabbard.) That ended last week as Fannie Mae parted ways with at least 10 high-ranking officials. Pulte’s FHFA is mum, but word of the senior departures spread across the industry Friday, creating worries that Fannie’s ability to provide stability to prices and activity could be hampered. Our housing market doesn’t need instability. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. Today’s has an interview with Tidalwave’s Chris McLendon on why the question lenders should ask isn't "does it use AI?" It's "can you prove the answers are right?")Source: Mortgage News Daily | 24 Aug 2026 | 3:47 pm
Slightly Stronger Start Mostly Due to Oil. Treasury News Fails to Inspire (Again)
Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-end buybacks. TGA is Treasury's bank account. It gets money from taxes, Treasury issuance, tariffs, etc. Therefore, any way you slice it, Treasury bond buying = government spending, unlike Fed QE. At best, it can influence the yield curve, but it can't artificially suppress yields overall. This is why the bond market won't embark on a big, sustained rally in response to Treasury bond buying, no matter how big a deal financial media makes of the news. In today's case, it could be contributing to yield curve flattening, but the modest rally seen in the bond market is far easier to attribute to a decent drop in fuel prices overnight.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 24 Aug 2026 | 3:13 pm
